How to read a model vs market row
A model-vs-market row usually shows three things: what the model assigns (a probability or projection), what the market implies at a point in time, and the difference between them. That difference is a comparison—not a ticket and not advice. Read the labels, note the timestamp if shown, and treat disagreement as information about assumptions or timing, not a guaranteed outcome.
When people open a sports analytics board for the first time, the confusing part is rarely the math—it’s the roles of the numbers.
Most useful rows separate at least two ideas:
- Model probability (or projection) — what the model assigns under its assumptions and the information it used.
- Market context — where public prices imply a probability (or a related number) at a given time.
Some boards also show a gap (difference / disagreement) between those two. That gap can come from stale inputs, different assumptions, market movement, or noise. It is not automatically a recommendation, a “play,” or a bet slip.
A practical way to read a row:
- Start with the model number and what it claims to be (probability of an event vs a median projection—those are different questions).
- Then read the market context as a benchmark at a timestamp, not as moral authority.
- Treat the gap as “these two views disagree,” not “you should do X.”
- If the board shows when the forecast was made, use that—numbers without a time context are easier to over-read.
What a careful product should avoid: collapsing model strength and market disagreement into one “action” score that sounds like a ticket. Keeping them separate is how a board stays literacy-first.
TrueProps is sports analytics software—not a sportsbook. On the board we show model output next to market context so you can see both. For sports with enough graded history, you can also inspect how forecasts behaved over time on Results. Start free; if a label reads like advice when it shouldn’t, that feedback matters.
Questions
- Is the gap a recommendation?
- No—it’s a comparison.
- Why show market context at all?
- So readers can see disagreement without pretending the model is the market.
- What if I only care about the model?
- You can still read the model field first; the market column is context.
- Does this place bets?
- No. TrueProps does not accept or place wagers.