Honest math —not gut feel.
TrueProps is a sports-analytics platform: one projection engine across sports — MLB and NFL today — calibrated per market once that market has graded enough finished games. It publishes its own calibration and shows its work. No black boxes. No guru picks. Just math you can audit — free during beta, with a public track record that stays free.
Decision support — not picks. Never a sportsbook.
How it works
Project. Show the work. Grade it in public.
We don't hand you a pick. We hand you a model probability for every market on the slate — calibrated once that market has graded enough games — the factors behind it where we have them, and the record of how the last ones landed — so you can trust it (or overrule it).
01
Project every market
One engine scores every game on today's slate — player props, team totals, moneylines, spreads — as a probability, calibrated per market once it has graded enough games, not a tip. MLB and NFL today; each sport is a spec on the same engine, not a rewrite.
Illustrative example
02
Show the work
MLB batter projections come with their factors — park, form, matchup, pitcher, weather — and every number carries a confidence tier that says how aligned the model's signals are. When a book has priced the market we show the gap too, no-vig, kept separate from the model's own read.
Illustrative example — not a track record
03
Grade it in public
Every projection is logged, resolved against the final, and published on the Results page — per market, per day, with the calibration curve where a market has one. Free, forever, no account needed. You decide what it is worth.
Illustrative example — not a track record
What we refuse to do
Truth-first, by design.
On the roadmap
MLB and NFL today. NBA and NHL on the roadmap.
The scoring engine is sport-agnostic by design. Each new sport is a spec, not a rewrite — and a new sport serves the raw model estimate until its markets have graded enough finished games to fit a calibration curve. The public record says which is which.
MLB
LiveNFL
LiveNBA
PlannedNHL
PlannedPricing
Free during beta. Here is what comes after.
Every account is full access right now, and nothing here is on sale yet. Beta full access is temporary. When it ends, every free account — including one created today — moves to the Free plan below, and Pro is the whole product. That change is announced on the pricing page at least 30 days ahead, and not before September 30, 2026.
Free
Available now$0
A free account is full access during beta. When beta ends, Free keeps a real daily sample and everything that makes the product trustworthy.
- ✓Three reads a day on Today — server-chosen, labelled as the day’s sample
- ✓One full game a day under Games — every market in it, unlocked
- ✓The public track record and calibration, graded projection by projection — free, forever
- ✓Bet tracker and bankroll
- ✓A 7-day full-access look at Pro when you sign up — no card
Pro
Announced · not yet on sale$19.99 / month · $149 / year
The whole product, every sport. Accounts created before the paid flip are offered the founding rate, $99 / year, locked for as long as they stay subscribed.
- ✓The full Today ranking and every game, MLB and NFL (and every sport we add)
- ✓Row detail: matchup history, caveats, and the model factors where they are served (MLB batter markets today)
- ✓Odds overlay and the model-vs-line gap
- ✓Slip with the correlation warning, CLV, trends
- ✓Cancel any time in the app; you keep access to the end of the period you paid for
Nothing is being sold today — no card is collected, and there is no trial timer running against you. The full terms of sale, refunds and cancellation live on the pricing page.
Why TrueProps
"The sports-betting tools I wanted didn't exist. Everyone was selling picks, no one was publishing calibration. So I built the tool I'd want to bet with — honest math, full attribution, zero 'guru' nonsense."
— D. Barrios, founder ·Read the full story
Ready to see today's projections?
Free during beta — the whole product, and no card is collected. After beta, Free keeps a daily sample and the public track record; the plans are set out above and in full on the pricing page.
Launch the app