TrueProps
Calibration refreshing…

Bet with honest math — not gut feel.

TrueProps ranks every MLB prop by model edge, publishes its own calibration, and shows you the factor behind each pick. No black boxes. No guru picks. Just math you can audit.

Decision support — not picks. Never a sportsbook.

How it works

Three reads, one decision.

We don't hand you a pick. We hand you the work behind the pick — so you can trust it (or overrule it).

01

Pull the line

Live odds ingested from every major book, every market — no curated subset, no lag beyond what the book publishes.

FanDuel +115
DraftKings +110
MGM +120 best

02

Run two models

Model 1 reads odds + batting history. Model 2 reads only batting history — an independent check. When they agree, confidence rises.

M1 market-aware 72.3%
M2 batting-only 69.8%

03

Measure the gap

We show where the model's estimate beats the market's — in percentage points, not marketing language. You decide if it's worth a bet.

Model 72.3%
Market 46.5%
Edge +25.8pp

What we refuse to do

Truth-first, by design.

Never a sportsbook. We don't take your action. No conflict of interest.
No locked picks. Every read is visible. You get the math, not a paywall.
No hype language. "Confidence," not "lock." Probabilities, not guarantees.
Plain-English math. Every edge comes with the reasons behind it.
Independent cross-check. Two models. If they disagree, we tell you.
Your data, exportable. Leave anytime with your full ledger.

On the roadmap

MLB today. NFL, NBA, NHL next.

The scoring engine is sport-agnostic by design. Each new sport is a spec, not a rewrite — we roll them out phased so every market we ship has real calibration before it hits your feed.

MLB

Live

NFL

2026 season

NBA

2026-27 season

NHL

2026-27 season

Why TrueProps

"The sports-betting tools I wanted didn't exist. Everyone was selling picks, no one was publishing calibration. So I built the tool I'd want to bet with — honest math, full attribution, zero 'guru' nonsense."

— D. Barrios, founder · Read the full story

Ready to see today's edges?

Launch the app