TrueProps
Open app

Honest math —not gut feel.

TrueProps is a sports-analytics platform: one projection engine across sports — MLB, NFL, MLS, NBA, the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 today. It shows its work. No black boxes. No guru picks. Just math you can audit — start free, with a public track record that stays free.

See today's projectionsHow the models work →

Decision support — not picks. Never a sportsbook.

How it works

Project. Show the work. Grade it in public.

We don't hand you a pick. We hand you a model probability for every market on the slate — calibrated once that market has graded enough games — the factors behind it where we have them, and the record of how the last ones landed — so you can trust it (or overrule it).

01

Project every market

One engine scores every game on today's slate — player props, team totals, moneylines, spreads — as a probability, not a tip. MLB, NFL, MLS, NBA, the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 today; each sport is a spec on the same engine, not a rewrite.

Illustrative example

Hits O0.568%
Team total O4.554%
Moneyline57%

02

Show the work

MLB batter projections come with their factors — park, form, matchup, pitcher, weather — and every number carries a confidence tier that says how aligned the model's signals are. When a book has priced the market we show the gap too, no-vig, kept separate from the model's own read.

Illustrative example — not a track record

Model probability72.3%
Confidence · factor alignmentHigh

03

Grade it in public

Every projection is logged, resolved against the final, and published on the Results page — per market, per day, with the calibration curve where a market has one. An early row marked Preview on the board is an exception: it is neither logged nor graded, and the pass that replaces it is logged. Free, forever, no account needed. You decide what it is worth.

Illustrative example — not a track record

Projected 62% · Hits O0.5hit ✓
Projected 38% · HR O0.5miss ✗
Graded nightlyResults page →

What we refuse to do

Truth-first, by design.

Never a sportsbook. We don't take your action. No conflict of interest.
Public track record. Every logged projection graded in the open — free, forever.
No hype language. "Confidence," not "lock." Probabilities, not guarantees.
Plain-English math. Every number has a definition, and the method is published.
Two reads, never blended. Model strength and the gap vs. the line — shown side by side, kept apart.
Your data, exportable. Leave anytime with your full ledger.

On the roadmap

MLB, NFL, MLS, NBA, the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 today. NHL on the roadmap.

The scoring engine is sport-agnostic by design. Each new sport is a spec, not a rewrite — and a new sport serves the model's raw estimate in any market where no calibration curve is applied. The public record says which is which. The Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 are live, all projection-only, with no calibration curve applied.

MLB

Live

NFL

Live

MLS

Live

NBA

Live

NHL

Planned

Pricing

Free during beta. Here is what comes after.

Every account is full access right now, and nothing here is on sale yet. Beta full access is temporary. Beta full access ends at the end of December 8, 2026, Arizona time. After that, every free account moves to the Free plan below, and Pro is the whole product. Accounts created after that get a 7-day free trial of full access.

Free

Available now

$0

A free account is full access during beta. When beta ends, Free keeps a real daily sample and everything that makes the product trustworthy.

  • ✓Three reads a day on Today — server-chosen, labelled as the day’s sample
  • ✓One full game a day under Games — every market in it, unlocked
  • ✓The public track record and calibration, graded projection by projection — free, forever
  • ✓Bet tracker and bankroll
  • ✓A 7-day full-access look at Pro when you sign up — no card

Pro

On sale December 8, 2026

$19.99 / month

The whole product, every sport.

Founding rate: $9.99 per month, locked in for as long as your subscription stays active, for a limited number of founding spots, one per payment card.

From December 8, 2026 until the earlier of 11:59 PM Arizona time on January 31, 2027 or when no founding spots remain.

Paid plans start December 8, 2026. Nothing can be purchased before then.

  • ✓The full Today ranking and every game, MLB, NFL, MLS and NBA (and every sport we add)
  • ✓Row detail: matchup history, caveats, and the model factors where they are served (MLB batter markets today)
  • ✓Odds overlay and the model-vs-line gap
  • ✓Slip with the correlation warning and CLV
  • ✓Cancel any time in the app; you keep access to the end of the period you paid for

Nothing is being sold today — no card is collected, and there is no trial timer running against you. The full terms of sale, refunds and cancellation live on the pricing page.

Why TrueProps

"The sports-betting tools I wanted didn't exist. Everyone was selling picks, no one was publishing calibration. So I built the tool I'd want to use — honest math, full attribution, zero 'guru' nonsense."

— D. Barrios, founder · Read the full story

Ready to see today's projections?

Free during beta, which ends at the end of December 8, 2026, Arizona time — the whole product, and no card is collected. After that, Free keeps a daily sample and the public track record; the plans are set out above and in full on the pricing page.

Launch the appGet the weekly record by email