Built by someone who wanted better tools

I spent too many Saturday mornings scrolling through "locks" and "hammer plays" from people who never publish their actual win rate. The question I wanted answered — "when this system says 60%, how often does it hit 60%?" — never had a real answer. So I built a tool that answers that question for its own picks first, and everything else second.

Every pick you see in TrueProps has its math in public. You get the edge, the model probability, the implied probability off the book, and the dominant factor behind the call. The homepage banner publishes the calibration rate for the last 90 days of 60%+ picks. When calibration drifts we say so rather than hiding the bad week.

The product is MLB-first because MLB has the densest, cleanest, cheapest public data. NFL, NBA, NHL are queued behind that — the scoring engine is sport-agnostic by design, so adding a sport is a spec file, not a rewrite.

If you bet recreationally, the goal is to help you bet the right markets for the right reasons. If you bet seriously, the goal is to be a trustworthy second opinion — the tool that's showing you what the math says, and telling you when the math is less confident.