What changed in the model: three NFL player markets get a new model

This note covers the two weeks to Saturday, Nov 7.

A model already serving a market is replaced only by a challenger: a second version scored beside it on the same slates and graded on the same resolved outcomes, promoted only when the graded record says the challenger is better by a margin wide enough that the comparison is not noise.

Promoted

NFL receptions, receiving yards and rushing yards. A challenger for these three player markets graded better than the served model on resolved games, and it now serves them. It changes the level a player’s projection is pulled toward when the player has few recent games. Players at positions it does not cover keep the previous model. The other NFL player markets did not change.

Retired, not adopted

A different way to rate soccer clubs (Oct 31). This challenger estimated each club’s attacking and defending strength by a different fitting method. Scored beside the served soccer model for just over two months, it did not grade better in any market, so it was retired. It never served a projection.

Still scoring beside the served models

Other challengers in NFL, NBA and soccer are being scored beside the served models. None of them produces a number on the board until it is promoted.

How a change is decided is on the methodology page.