Reading a row
Every row is one claim. Here is what its numbers mean.
A row is one claim about one player, team or game — “at least 1 hit”, “over 229.5 passing yards”, “to win”. It carries up to four things, and they answer different questions.
The four tokens
- The percentage, largest on the row
- Our probability that the claim lands. Once a market has graded enough finished games it is calibrated: of claims we print that number on, about that share have landed. A newer league shows the model’s raw estimate until its curve exists, and the board says so.
- Base
- How often this kind of claim lands with no model at all. It is the bar’s tick, and the number every row is read against — a probability is only interesting next to the base it beats or misses. A team or game line reads againstEven instead — a posted line’s coin flip — and a three-way match result againstEven 33, its even split.
- The gap, in pp
- Our number against the book’s line, in percentage points. Only where a line exists — a dash means none was posted.
- Flagged
- Clears this market’s threshold. A ranking, not a promise.
Deliberately no example probabilities or record counts on this page: those are published figures needing their own records under our claims standard, and the honest version is the live one. (A market line like “229.5” above is neither — it is the book’s number, not ours.) Open any board and the tokens above are on every row.
Strength is not value
Confidence is how firmly the model’s factors line up behind a claim — a within-market read, never compared across markets.
Edge is different: how the projection compares to a sportsbook’s line. A strong claim can have zero edge when the book already agrees.
Confidence lives on every row; edge appears only where sportsbook odds are joined.The two are never combined into one number.
One habit worth forming
Open a row’s detail before acting on it. The headline number is the least interesting thing there: behind it are the matchup history, the sample sizes and the caveats — and thin samples say so rather than being presented as a rate you can lean on. Where a market is not yet calibrated, the detail says that too.
Where a factor breakdown exists, it is there too. Factors are served for the MLB batter markets; every other row shows the projection and its calibration state, and says plainly that a breakdown for it is not built yet. The detail sheet never invents one.
Where the numbers come from is Methodology. What they have actually done is Results, which is open without an account.